As we move into Q1, the IPO market is entering a more constructive phase—but not in the way many expected just a few months ago. While December was widely anticipated to be a heavy year-end issuance window, the market ultimately proved more selective. Fewer deals crossed the finish line, and those that did faced a higher bar.
That outcome wasn’t a setback. It was a signal.
Rather than reopening indiscriminately, the IPO market chose discipline. Demand was present, but conditional. Execution mattered. Valuations mattered. Structure mattered. And that selectivity is exactly what sets up Q1 as a cleaner, more durable phase of the cycle.
This is no longer a market asking whether IPOs can work. It’s a market deciding which IPOs deserve to.
What December Actually Taught the Market
December functioned less as a full reopening and more as a stress test. Issuers, underwriters, and investors all recalibrated in real time. Some companies pushed forward, others stepped back, and expectations reset quickly.
The takeaway was clear: capital is available, but only for the right stories, at the right prices, with the right structure.
That dynamic benefits both sides of the market. Retail investors get fewer broken deals and clearer signals. Institutions get better entry points, stronger books, and more confidence in aftermarket behavior. Importantly, it also means Q1 doesn’t begin under a cloud of excess—it begins with a clearer understanding of demand.
The Q1 Setup: Fewer Deals, Higher Signal
Heading into Q1, we expect pacing to remain deliberate. Underwriters appear focused on sequencing, not volume. This isn’t about clearing a backlog all at once—it’s about building confidence deal by deal.
Against that backdrop, several high-profile, not-yet-out U.S. deals are shaping expectations. These are the names we believe matter most for sentiment as the next phase of the IPO cycle takes shape.
Early-Cycle Deals We’re Watching Closely
Kraken
Bullish case:
Kraken is one of the most recognizable remaining private crypto platforms, with scale, brand equity, and infrastructure-level relevance. As regulatory clarity improves and institutional participation in digital assets broadens, Kraken could emerge as a flagship crypto IPO for the next cycle. Retail interest would likely be significant, while institutions may view it as a cleaner way to gain crypto exposure than token-based assets.
Bearish case:
Crypto remains sentiment-driven and cyclical. Trading volumes can compress quickly, and regulatory risk hasn’t disappeared. Any pullback in digital assets could force valuation expectations lower or delay timing. Public investors will demand earnings durability, not just volume leverage.
Anthropic (watchlist)
Bullish case:
Anthropic sits at the center of one of the strongest secular themes in the market: AI infrastructure and safety-focused model development. Strategic partnerships and enterprise adoption position it as a serious long-term platform. Even early steps toward public-market readiness could lift sentiment across the broader AI IPO pipeline.
Bearish case:
AI enthusiasm alone won’t carry a public offering. Investors will scrutinize monetization, margins, and compute costs closely. High capital intensity and competitive pressure from larger platforms could weigh on near-term profitability and valuation discipline.
OpenAI (sentiment driver, not imminent)
Bullish case:
OpenAI is less about timing and more about gravity. Any movement toward eventual public-market access would immediately reset expectations across AI, software, and next-generation tech. Its scale and influence would attract global institutional demand.
Bearish case:
Complex governance, political scrutiny, and unconventional capital structures make the path to public markets uncertain. For now, OpenAI’s primary impact is indirect—shaping how investors think about AI valuations and access
Discord
Bullish case:
Discord combines massive user scale with deep engagement and strong brand loyalty. If monetization continues to improve, it could become a bellwether consumer-tech IPO—one that resonates with retail investors while still offering institutions a modelable growth story.
Bearish case:
Monetization remains the central question. Public markets will focus on ARPU, churn, and operating leverage. Without a clearly articulated path to sustained profitability, valuation expectations may need to reset meaningfully.
Strava
Bullish case:
Strava’s subscription-driven model, brand affinity, and lifestyle positioning fit well with a more selective market. Recurring revenue and loyal users provide visibility, which is increasingly valued by both retail and institutional investors.
Bearish case:
Growth may be perceived as incremental rather than explosive, and the addressable market could be viewed as niche. Investors will want to see expansion beyond core endurance athletes to support premium valuations.
Bull vs. Bear: The Q1 Market Itself
The Bull Case
The Bear Case
Bottom Line
Q1 is not about reopening the floodgates. It’s about proving the market can function with discipline. December showed that demand exists—but only for the right deals. Q1 will determine how far that discipline can extend.
The companies we’re watching reflect that reality: strong brands, real users, meaningful opportunity, and very real execution risk. That’s what defines this phase of the cycle.
If Q1 delivers a handful of well-priced, well-structured IPOs, confidence can build quickly—not through hype, but through credibility. And that’s how a sustainable IPO market comes back.