In The Prophet’s Perspective, we aim to stay in our lane—delivering insights specific to our signals and the IPO market. We leave the high-level opining to others. But right now, the IPO market is undeniably entangled with broader macro forces. Believe me, I look forward to the day when that’s no longer the case. For too long, writing about where we are in the cycle has felt like writing about a loved one battling an illness in the hospital, fighting to get out.
Last week, market sentiment took a sharp turn for the worse. Tariffs, stagflation, consumer confidence, Stevie Cohen’s comments—you all know the headlines. If you read these notes, you already know that the IPO market remains highly sensitive to news flow and volatility, especially among companies in the filing stage. Perhaps we’re now entering a phase where the market reacts to the whirlwind of policy shifts this new presidential term has ushered in. Deregulation and addressing the nation’s debt issues may ultimately be necessary, but right now, there are too many cross-currents to make clear sense of the near-term path. We may be back in wait-and-see mode.
So far in 2025, we have a small sample size of offerings. Of the five companies that received an IPO Prophet Bull Signal, three have already broken issue price. Last week hit these IPOs hard. Frankly, that’s not surprising in an environment like this. But a lot can change in a week, and our patient is a fighter.
For now, we wait...
IPO Prophet’s value lies in our proprietary signaling process. We analyze Initial Public Offerings using a suite of algorithms refined over the past 20 years. The table above highlights all IPOs in 2024 where IPO Prophet has generated a Bull Signal, demonstrating returns based on our signals and subsequent performance since the opening trade. While our indicators can be applied to longer-term positions, the data above reflects only the first day’s performance, as our signals are designed specifically for issuance day, with positions marked to market at the close of the IPO’s first trading day. To learn more about our process, here.