The Prophet’s Perspective

Did This Pony Become a Horse...possibly an Uber Horse?

Pony.ai was set to price 15 million ADS at a range of $11 to $13 last week, but with growing demand—and possibly interest from Uber—they have upsized the deal to 20 million ADS, aiming to raise $260 million. Offerings exceeding a 20% increase trigger an SEC re-filing, so we now wait with anticipation to see how this equine creature can run when it hits the track this week.

The acceptance of autonomous driving in taxi services and trucking will have a transformative effect on society and this stands to be an exciting IPO to watch. With revenues coming from a low base but a phenomenal amount of potential, combined with interest from the ride hailing giant, Uber, this kind of IPO will be interesting to watch with the IPO Prophet Signals. For anyone interested in seeing this in real time don’t hesitate to reach out for a demo login!

2025: The Year of Rejuvenation?

Though nothing of interest priced last week, it was far from quiet. Several companies announced plans to join the IPO track next year, reinforcing our view that 2025 will mark a strong recovery for the IPO market. Here are some highlights:

• CoreWeave: An AI cloud platform planning a 2025 IPO, aiming for a valuation exceeding $35 billion. The company provides high-powered AI computing solutions—need we say more?
• Netskope: A cloud-security firm with over one-third of Fortune 100 companies as clients. With ARR approaching $600 million, Netskope plans to go public in late 2025.
• ServiceTitan: Recently filed for an IPO, showing 23.7% revenue growth and narrowing net losses. The company targets a $9.5 billion valuation, serving trades businesses with cloud-based software.
• SailPoint: An enterprise security software firm aiming to re-enter the public markets in 2025. Acquired in a $6.9 billion deal, it now boasts $600 million in ARR.

IPO Prophet 2024 Cohort Performance: Week in Review

Our 2024 cohort continues to show resilience, with an average Open to Last % of 33.58%. Two-thirds of the companies in this group have positive returns from both their IPO price and first public trades—this is a strong message for prospective issuers.

The Week-to-Date (WTD) % changes show a similar trend, with the group rebounding strongly from last week's selling pressure, posting an average gain of 7.24%. Standouts like TEM and TWFG delivered double-digit gains for the week, reflecting resilience across the board.

For a more detailed breakdown of this week’s performance, check out our IPO Prophet Performance Recap below.

IPO Prophet’s value lies in our proprietary signaling process. We analyze Initial Public Offerings using a suite of algorithms refined over the past 20 years. The table above highlights all IPOs in 2024 where IPO Prophet has generated a Bull Signal, demonstrating returns based on our signals and subsequent performance since the opening trade. While our indicators can be applied to longer-term positions, the data above reflects only the first day’s performance, as our signals are designed specifically for issuance day, with positions marked to market at the close of the IPO’s first trading day. To learn more about our process, here.