The IPO Market Oscillator is pushing toward Strong Bull territory — a rare, high-momentum regime that’s historically marked the start of powerful runs in newly public equities.
Deal flow is broadening, aftermarket performance is strengthening, and investor risk appetite is finally returning. Together, these shifts point to a market that’s regaining its footing and expanding in participation — the kind of environment where disciplined aggression can pay off.
In this week’s Prophet’s Perspective, we break down what’s driving the move, how market breadth is evolving, and why IPO traders should be ready to grab the bull by the horns.
Where We Stand Now
The Oscillator tracks the health of the IPO market using a blend of deal flow, order flow, and aftermarket performance metrics. It divides the environment into four regimes:
Today, the line sits right around 6.0 — not yet across, but clearly pressing higher.
The difference between Bull and Strong Bull is more than cosmetic: history shows a measurable shift in win rates, payoff skew, and the sustainability of momentum once the Oscillator clears that level.
Why Strong Bull Matters
Backtests across 2012–2025 show that Strong Bull regimes produce the most favorable payoff structure in our database:
In other words: when the Oscillator tips into Strong Bull, the odds and the payoffs both shift in favor of risk-on behavior.
Chasing the Bull
The metaphor writes itself: when Strong Bull arrives, the IPO market becomes the arena. Lesser regimes are like sparring practice — feints, quick jabs, caution in every move. But Strong Bull is when the beast enters the ring. Some investors step back, nervous about the size of the animal. At IPO Prophet, we take the opposite stance: grab the bull by the horns.
That doesn’t mean recklessness. A good matador knows the bull is powerful, unpredictable, and capable of goring anyone who underestimates it. But he also knows that to win, he must move with conviction, not hesitation. In Strong Bull, IPOs make bigger individual moves. That’s the time to scale positions, press our Bull and Momentum signals, and expect persistence instead of fragility. The market will thrash — volatility expands — but history shows the payoff skews heavily in favor of those who stay in the ring.
What History Teaches UsStrong Bull regimes are rare, but their footprints are clear:
Each time the Oscillator entered Strong Bull, the market rewarded traders who stayed in the arena. Those who hesitated, waiting for perfect clarity, missed the runs that defined cycles.
What Traders Should Watch For
The Prophet’s View
We’re not there yet, but the IPO market is on the cusp of Strong Bull. That’s the moment when momentum stops being fragile and becomes durable, when conviction is rewarded rather than punished.
For issuers, this backdrop means confidence in bringing deals to market. For traders, it’s the setup where IPO Prophet strategies shine brightest — scaling Bull and Momentum signals with conviction, while managing volatility as the price of opportunity.
The bull is circling. The cautious will retreat to the sidelines. We’ll be in the arena, ready to meet it head-on. |