Can the IPO Market Run With the eToros?

With much anticipation for a resurgence in IPO activity coming into 2025, like all aspects of the financial markets, resilience is being tested. Last week, eToro priced its upsized IPO at $52 per share, raising nearly $620 million and notching a 29% surge on its Nasdaq debut—ending the day with a market cap of approximately $5.5 billion. The success of eToro, along with a surge in recent filings and pricings, suggests a reopening of the IPO market. But is this an indication that the IPO market is back on track—or just a short sprint before the summer slowdown?

Signs the IPO Window is Opening:

• eToro’s Strong Debut:
  The fintech platform priced above its $46–$50 range, reflecting strong institutional demand. Its 29% first-day gain highlights renewed risk appetite, particularly among investors seeking exposure to the crypto-adjacent growth story.
• Q1 Deal Surge:
  The U.S. IPO market saw a 55% increase in deal count compared to Q1 2024, with 59 IPOs raising $8.9 billion. High-profile names like Chime and Hinge Health are signaling confidence with sizable filings.
• Cross-Sector Participation:
  Activity spans AI infrastructure (CoreWeave), fintech (eToro, Chime), and healthcare (Hinge Health, Omada Health). Investors aren’t just chasing tech—they’re allocating across sectors with compelling narratives.
• Favorable Backdrop:
  Stabilizing rates and a subdued VIX have created an accommodative environment. Analysts increasingly argue that market stability, not euphoria, is the real prerequisite for a functioning IPO window.

Reasons for Caution:

• Summer is Coming:
  Bankers and investors alike know the playbook—late spring often sees a final burst of deals before a summer lull. This may be a tactical push, not a secular turn.
• Macro Shadows Remain:
  The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on aggressive trade measures offers temporary relief, but geopolitical and recessionary concerns haven’t disappeared. EY and others warn that volatility could resurface quickly.
• Selective Risk-On Behavior:
  eToro’s crypto-heavy revenue base (96% in 2024) and 40 million registered users make it an outlier. Investors are showing discipline—unprofitable or niche growth stories may still struggle to get out.
• Pipeline Moderation:
  While 76 IPOs have already priced in 2025, the forward calendar is lighter than in historic peak years. Deloitte’s forecast of 160 IPOs raising $45–$50 billion would mark only a modest rebound—more normalization than breakout.

IPO Market Litmus Test: This Week’s Key Deals

This week’s activity includes:

• Hinge Health — Digital musculoskeletal therapy platform, aiming to raise up to $437 million. A strong signal for healthtech demand.
• Voyager Technologies — A space and defense player pursuing a $100 million IPO. Could tap into the national security funding narrative.
• MNTN Inc — A $105 million offering testing appetite for adtech and marketing platforms.

Together, these offerings will clarify whether eToro’s performance was a leading indicator—or a high-profile exception.

Conclusion:

The IPO market is stirring, with positive signals from pricing, performance, and sector breadth. But this is still a market regaining its footing—not one in full sprint. If deals like Hinge and Voyager price well, it could validate renewed investor interest. If they stumble, it may reinforce the idea that this is a narrow window—one that favors only the most compelling stories. For a closer look at upcoming IPOs, past deal performance, or custom analysis from our internal signal engine, reach out—we're happy to share data and perspective.