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From the Prophet’s Perspective: $32 Billion and Counting: Circle Just Reset the IPO Clock

These are the moments we have been waiting for. After years of negativity in the IPO market and a weighing feeling that a moment like this may never come again, we finally had our moment. The good thing about pessimism is that despite how bad it gets, a few powerful events can quickly bring it full circle, and that definitely happened last week with the Circle Internet Group IPO.

CRCL went public offering 34 million shares at $31.00 per share. On a fully diluted basis (accounting for options, warrants, RSUs, etc.), Circle entered the market with an estimated valuation of roughly $8.1 billion. By Friday’s close, with the stock trading as high as $123.49 intraday, the fully diluted market cap had ballooned to approximately $32.1 billion.

From the Prophet’s Perspective, this was a watershed moment. And even if you didn’t participate, not much has been missed — because performances like this change the tone of the entire IPO market. Circle's success will ignite a new wave of offerings, reinvigorating the pipeline and the appetite for risk.

But this wasn’t just about performance. Bitcoin, crypto at large, and stablecoins have been on a long, hard-fought path of their own — and this offering finally fuses those forces of change with the depth and economic scale of U.S. equity markets.  . In many ways, if an observer were looking at the world of innovation and change simply through the lens of the IPO market it would seem that the world has been devoid of creative/technological advancement over the last few years.  This offering tells a different story.

We see this offering as a long awaited integration new advancement with the power of capital. This is the core of what the IPO market is really about. This is the core of how our economy has remained vibrant and fostered change for the better throughout economic and political cycles. This is the beginning of a new cycle where an entirely new cohort of companies will come to the fore bringing considerable change. 

 A new generation of companies is preparing to step forward and reshape the landscape. We've seen this before: Facebook from Google, Google from Netscape — and now, perhaps, Circle lighting the way for what’s next.

 

IPO Prophet’s value lies in our proprietary signaling process. We analyze Initial Public Offerings using a suite of algorithms refined over the past 20 years. The table above highlights all IPOs in 2024 where IPO Prophet has generated a Bull Signal, demonstrating returns based on our signals and subsequent performance since the opening trade. While our indicators can be applied to longer-term positions, the data above reflects only the first day’s performance, as our signals are designed specifically for issuance day, with positions marked to market at the close of the IPO’s first trading day. To learn more about our process, here.