Last week marked an important moment for the IPO market. With MNTN's debut, investors finally caught a glimpse of what might lie beyond the long and difficult climb the market has endured. Since we began sharing our views last summer, we’ve argued that the IPO market would return. “Private for longer” or even “private forever” was never a permanent state. Valuations would reconcile, and opportunities would reemerge for those prepared to act.
It’s taken longer than we expected—but last week, we saw a shift that may point to better days ahead.
Despite macro headwinds like tariff-driven volatility, the market stabilized enough for a trio of companies—eToro, Hinge Health, and MNTN—to seize the moment and go public ahead of the holiday weekend. All three priced at the high end of their ranges and opened higher. In a market still cautious and reactive, these are meaningful signals.
What has been lacking in the 2025 IPO cohort is follow-through. Most deals have opened well, only to stall or retreat shortly after the first print—suggesting that investors are quick to take gains and hesitant to commit beyond the open. This pattern has reinforced the value of our Bear Signals at IPO Prophet—offering timely exits to protect gains or limit downside.
But MNTN was different. The deal opened strong—and kept climbing. In a market hungry for momentum, this matters. It's the kind of post-open strength that rekindles interest, restores confidence, and signals to private companies—especially those navigating tough down-rounds—that there may be a compelling path forward in the public markets after all.
We’ve long said the IPO comeback would start slowly, then accelerate. MNTN, appropriately named, may be the first summit in view—reminding us that the hardest part of the climb may be behind us, and the horizon is starting to open up.
IPO Prophet’s value lies in our proprietary signaling process. We analyze Initial Public Offerings using a suite of algorithms refined over the past 20 years. The table above highlights all IPOs in 2024 where IPO Prophet has generated a Bull Signal, demonstrating returns based on our signals and subsequent performance since the opening trade. While our indicators can be applied to longer-term positions, the data above reflects only the first day’s performance, as our signals are designed specifically for issuance day, with positions marked to market at the close of the IPO’s first trading day. To learn more about our process, here.
