Introducing the IPO Market Oscillator: A New Barometer of Opportunity

For decades, traders have relied on imperfect proxies and anecdotal chatter to assess the health of the IPO market. Not anymore.

IPO Prophet is proud to unveil the IPO Market Oscillator — a proprietary composite index built to quantify the tone, temperature, and tradability of the U.S. IPO market with precision.

We’ve spent years building what no one else dared to attempt: a high-integrity, statistically grounded, forward-aware model that tells you — with daily clarity — whether the IPO market is a land of opportunity or a field of landmines.

No more guessing. No more backward-looking indices. Just a clean, quantitative signal updated in real-time.

What Is It?

The IPO Market Oscillator compresses a complex system of behavior and structural data into a daily score from 0 to 10. It’s built on several internally-tracked variables, including how newly listed stocks are trading relative to offer price, opening price, and proprietary Day 1 signal flags — among others. The score is normalized, scaled, and smoothed to give you a market sentiment profile that is both responsive and reliable.

This isn’t a generic factor model. It’s a purpose-built tool for traders who operate at the edge of price discovery — the IPO edge.

Reading the Score

The score feeds directly into a regime framework that classifies the market into four environments:

Think of it as the IPO VIX, but instead of measuring fear, it measures opportunity.

Why It Matters

The Oscillator isn’t theoretical — it’s been tested against real capital and real trades using IPO Prophet’s flagship strategy:

Buying only those IPOs that trigger our Day 1 bullish signal.

We’ve grouped every trade by oscillator regime, and the results speak for themselves:

It’s rare to find signal progression this clean in public equity markets. It’s even rarer to find one so tightly coupled to trade outcomes.

This isn't alpha buried in factor noise. This is signal — loud and clear.

Who It's For

This tool isn’t for the passive crowd. It’s for the risk-takers who show up when the bell rings and capitalize on first-day inefficiencies. It’s for institutions who want to size trades by regime, and for analysts who want to tie market narrative to data that actually matters.

If you're in the business of trading IPOs — or want to be — this belongs on your screen.

Live. Adaptive. Proprietary.

The IPO Market Oscillator updates daily, recalibrating with every new deal, every new print, every new signal. It doesn’t just reflect history — it tells you what kind of terrain you're walking into.

There’s no more need to guess if the IPO market is healthy. Now, we measure it.

Welcome to the new era of IPO trading. The Oscillator is live.